Explaining the WaPo/ABC poll

You know... the one showing a 9 point lead for Obama:

In the raw numbers, the poll sample consists of 38% Democrats and 28% Republicans.  This doubles the actual spread on party affiliation, last surveyed by the more-reliable Rasmussen at 38.7%-33.6% D-to-R. When the WaPo/ABC poll takes leaners into account, the spread gets even more pronounced: 54-38.  That suggests a rather strong bias towards Obama, and an almost insurmountable hurdle for McCain.

In contrast, the spread was smaller on 9/7, when McCain had a two-point edge.  The base number gave an eight-point advantage to the Dems, but only a nine-point advantage with leaners.  That’s a seven-point shift in two weeks within the sample, which would certainly account for a large shift towards Obama.

News you can use.

So do so.